Balkanalysis.com Rapid Reactions

Breaking news and informed views from the Balkans and beyond- the official blog of Balkanalysis.com.

Saturday, February 25, 2006

"The Balkans would be a good place to start"

Is it just ingrained prejudice and supposition, or are the Brits on to something?

The Independent quotes John Horan, "...a money laundering specialist who works for the accountants Harbinson Mulholland," on the topic of Britain's most exciting robbery in a long time. Wondering how the thieves could launder up to 4o million GBP abroad, the expert says that "...they will look for countries in a state of flux, or that have poor border controls. The Balkans would be a good place to start."

Tuesday, February 07, 2006

Macedonian Antiquities Stolen from Bulgarian Museum

Makfax reported today that a huge fortune in Macedonian antiquities- coins and jewelry from the time of Alexander the Great- has been stolen from a museum in central Bulgaria:

"...Nearly EUR 1.2 million worth of antique jewelry and coins dating from the ancient Macedonian kingdom, have been stolen from a museum in Veliko Trnovo, Bulgarian officials said.

The overall booty comprising jewelry, 11.000 coins including 230 golden coins from Hellenistic era and 68 staters dated from Filip-era and the reign of his son Alexander the Great. The estimated weight of the stolen jewelry was put at 100 kilos.

There was no immediate word on the exact date of the robbery at central Bulgaria museum. The robbery was reported last week."

Monday, February 06, 2006

Complexities Multiply in Greek Wiretapping Scandal

(This article is from the Balkanalysis.com archive)


Speculations are flying this week as the official investigation into Greece’s major wiretapping scandal gets underway. The government is trying to discover who was behind the covert operation that targeted the highest officials in the land- and why.

According to Kathimerini, Magistrate Giorgos Aktipis has been ordered to get to the bottom of the mystery, and “…to look into not just the breach of privacy laws but also the possibility that espionage was involved and that state secrets were compromised.”

The newspaper states that some 15 officials have already testified in a preliminary investigation, “…including top government officials and officers from the National Intelligence Agency (EYP). Giorgos Koronias, the CEO of Vodafone in Greece - where the spy software had been installed - also answered questions.”

An Investigation Doomed in Advance?

Koronias and his company were accused of ruining any chance of finding the perpetrators by removing the spy software, thus severing the connection with whoever had installed it, on March 8, 2005. They argue now that “…it was a crucial matter of security for its networks and immediate actions had to be taken,” according to Reporter.gr.
The discovery of the spy system, which utilized 4 urban phone antennaes in Athens, was made by Ericsson technicians after complaints from customers. “…Early in 2005, users notified Vodafone they were experiencing difficulties in receiving messages and in making phone calls,” reported Dow Jones, citing Greek Public Order Minister Yiorgos Voulgarakis. The Swedish company provides Vodafone with the software.

According to the report, after the complaints began, “…Vodafone in Greece notified its U.K. parent, which sent an investigation team to Athens and found spying software was in place on Vodafone Greece's central system. The software was diverting telephone calls, being made to and from around 100 people, to 14 mobile telephony devices.”
According to Kathimerini, “…Vodafone antennas in the central Athens areas of Lycabettus, Mavilis Square and the Athens Tower were used in the eavesdropping operation. ‘The investigation discovered a special code in the software which permitted cell phone interception,’ said Justice Minister Anastassis Papaligouras.”

Interestingly, the Reporter.gr article claims that “…the legal ‘wiretapping’ software was bought from Ericsson, for the Olympic Games Security needs and supposed to have been used only through legitimate procedures, i.e. only after official request from judicial and police authorities,” and that at the time the software was not to be used, because a crucial law had not been passed.

Nevertheless, “…the unknown intruders managed to plant a Trojan Horse/spyware into Ericsson’s software. Also one should take seriously on board that Ericsson's call interception system was locked. That is why Vodafone turned to Ericsson. It is Ericsson's [staff] who handled the specific checking.”

A Suspicious Suicide?

The spying began as early as June 2004, two months before the Athens Olympics, peaked during the games, and continued until March 8, 2005. Two days later, Vodafone informed the government about the spying.
Feeding latent Greek paranoia and making the whole affair more lurid, however, was the fact that on the 9th, Vodafone’s top technical executive conveniently “hung himself” in his Athens apartment.

While the company protests that there was no relation between the death of Kostas Tsalikides and the scandal, the Guardian reports that there are reasons for suspicion: “…as the mobile company's network planning manager, he was best placed to know who installed the software, insiders claim.” The Guardian cites the late Tsalikides’ brother, who told Ta Nea that, “…we found no suicide note… he had no health problems, was about to marry and was doing very well at work.”

But things grew darker and more disturbing on Saturday, when according to GreekNews, a childhood friend of the late Tsalikides, Sokratis Liolios, “…found a handwritten note that said: ‘Choose a way to die.’ The note was signed by the ‘Blood donor’ and a swastika was also drawn on it.”

An Inside Job?

The software, installed on Vodafone's central system, diverted all calls made to and from around 100 numbers to “…14 pay-as-you-go mobile phones, from which conversations could then be recorded,” said Kathimerini.
The precise numbers tapped are remarkable in several ways. They included “‘…the prime minister’s, the whole leadership of the defence ministry and the whole leadership of the public order ministry, some foreign ministry phones, one former minister, now in opposition, and others,’ government spokesman Theodore Roussopoulos told a news conference.”

Among these ‘others’ were phones belonging to antiwar and civil rights activists, Arabs, and even a US Embassy official.

Aside from this interesting selection of figures, the other unusual thing is the fact that some of the phones were not registered to the actual person who used them- indicating insider involvement. As a second Reporter.gr article put it:
“…the crucial element is that the ‘intruders’ knew exactly which phones to tap. Who would know that a mobile phone registered in a technical company was being used by the Prime Minister? Or that a phone registered to a medium ranked diplomat was being used by the Minister of Foreign Affairs. Certainly only very few have the ability to get hands in such information, analysts say.”

Or Foreign Involvement?But could there have been foreign actors with the means, ability and interest to pull off such an operation? Greeks seem to think so. The government has spent the past few days trying “to quell speculation yesterday that foreign agents were behind the eavesdropping,” as the IHT put it.

“…Engineers discovered that the 14 receiving phones were using four mobile telephone masts within a radius of some 2 kilometers in central Athens,” the article added. “The location of the snooping phones has given rise to speculation that American secret agents were involved, since the US Embassy is within the area defined by the four masts.”

The possibility that the Americans were involved was “categorically denied” by Greek government spokesman Theodoros Roussopoulos. “…Relations between Greece and the USA are, and remain, good,” he said.

At the same time, he “…rejected assertions that the government had indirectly tried to finger the US Embassy by revealing the location of the mobile phone masts,” the IHT reported.

Indeed, this suspicion doesn’t hold water for former CIA agent Bruce Tefft, who stated that, “if it were the US the listening posts would not be close to the US Embassy- we may make mistakes but we're not that stupid.”

Further, he did not see any realistic motive for the US to have taken such a risk. “I don't think there's anything in Greece warranting such an effort. We have far too many real enemies in the world to worry that much about what our allies might be doing.”

Nevertheless, nothing can be discounted outright, which is what will make the investigators' jobs very difficult. From the world superpower to the tiniest tech-friendly group of experts, the options are limitless.

Terrorists, territorial rivals such as Turkey, local political insiders and criminal organizations- there may simply be too many contenders for us to ever know who masterminded the taps.

Indeed, as Kathimerini reported, “…[any] people with the right equipment can easily intercept phone calls… it takes just a second to tap a phone call, since mobile phone networks (GSM) have major security flaws which can be manipulated.”

“…Everyone with money and a first world technical capability [could have done it]," added the former CIA agent. "This includes every major and even some minor intelligence service including the Russians, French, US, Israel, Germans, Serbs, Macedonians, Bulgarians, etc. It also includes every major cartel and organized crime family.”

Therefore, “a criminal gang, or terrorist operation, or local regional enemies or even political rivalries- these seem to me to me more likely [than the US].”

In the search for potential clues, one might try to contextualize the affair in light of the larger world events going on at the time.

From June 2004 to March of 2005, Greek foreign relations underwent various challenges, even traumas. In addition to the Olympics, the key events included negotiations over Cyprus, Turkey’s movement towards EU candidate status, and the American recognition of Macedonia by its constitutional name. The last, especially, seemed to have caught the government flat-footed. Indeed, it was not a particularly triumphant period for Greek foreign policy, which seemed to be on the defensive more often than not.

It now seems that unknown parties were aware of the conversations Greece’s highest officials held and perhaps, policies and decisions made before they actually materialized. Perhaps this case conceals some answers regarding why Greek leaders seemed so off-balanced and even surprised in some of their reactions to key regional events during the period in question.

Saturday, February 04, 2006

The Danish Butter Challenge: Who's Up For It?

As Danish foodstuffs languish unsold in Arab docks, EU Trade Commissioner Peter Mandelson has warned Saudi Arabia that "...any official backing of a boycott against Danish products because of the 'cartoon affair' would mean taking on the whole of the EU trade bloc."

Who knew that this whole thing wasn't really about universal values!

Punters, place your bets: how long it will be before some resolute defender of the European way snaps up the "buydanishbutter.com" domain name?

Turkish Foreign Property Ownership Law Sparks Optimism and Fears

(This article is from the Balkanaysis.com archive)


A new law giving foreigners the right to own property in Turkey is expected to launch a buying frenzy, as Europeans try to buy up prime slices of the Aegean and Mediterranean coasts, says the Oxford Business Group’s senior country editor, Anthony Skinner.

In a January 31 report, the economic analyst maintains that with late December’s law, “…profit margins are expected to swell for agents and brokers alike.” Indeed, even during an acquisitions freeze imposed in July 2005, “…the value of foreign-owned real estate notched a warm $1.4bn between January and November 2005.”Foreign confidence that legislation would eventually right itself, despite protests from the opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) and a signature campaign, seems to have been vindicated once and for all. Raymond James analyst Kerem Tezcan stated for the OBG that “we have seen the end of the story… there is not much the opposition can do anymore.”

Of course, clear limits to what foreigners can and can’t buy have been stipulated. Military zones, resource-rich areas, national parks and so on are off-limits. However, the report notes, “…while land purchases cannot initially exceed 2.5 ha, - equivalent to the size of five football fields - acquisitions can in fact be increased to 30 ha, subject to authorisation by the Council of Ministers.” On January 10 Turkish newspaper Zaman added that foreign-owned properties must be used “as private residences or workplaces.”

According to the analysts, British, Dutch, German and Greek buyers will make up the bulk of those snatching up Turkish property, though denizens of the sun-starved Nordic countries and the French will be represented as well.
But not only the Europeans are interested. James Wittering of property developer Exclusive-International reported on January 20 that wealthy investors from Dubai have “…committed to an extended real estate investment program worth five billion US dollars. A spokesperson for Amberlamb the property investment specialists said ‘This financial commitment from Dubai is the first foreign investment offered to Turkey since an agreement with the EU was reached and is therefore seen as highly significant. It is also the first in an estimated 1.2 trillion dollars of inward investment that Turkey is attempting to attract from the Gulf States.’”

A recent example attesting to the popularity of Turkish coastal residences for foreign retirees and holiday-makers came late last month with the announcement of a 34-villa project in Bodrum by the British-Turkish consortium BraemoreGemini. According to a press release, “…the numbers of reservations received by property investors and those hungry for real estate in this, the most stylish of Turkey’s resorts, has reached unprecedented levels in such a short space of time. “

But the new law has also opened a whole set of questions regarding its effects on land management, economic development and the possible interaction between the Turks and their guests.

Visions of Swallowed-up Territory Worries Nationalists

Supporters of Turkey’s nationalist party fear that the most desirable parts of their country will be bought up by the descendents of the same Westerners who briefly divided up and occupied the same region in the aftermath of World War I. Turks are immensely proud of their homeland and safeguarding its integrity has always been paramount- and a potent political draw in a country still influenced to a great degree by military vigilance.

However, said Alanya Tourist Managers Foundation Chairman Mufit Kaptanoglu for Zaman, “…foreigners have no intention of buying up the whole of Turkey piece by piece. Those voicing such arguments based on conspiracy theories.”

Indeed, another important safeguard envisioned by the legislation, says the Oxford Business Group, is that the total properties sold per province “…cannot exceed 5% of the territory of any of Turkey's 81 provinces. This restriction is to be monitored by the cabinet.”

Kaptanoglu and other representatives of the Turkish tourism industry believe that foreign real estate acquisitions will boost growth. Akdeniz Tourism Hoteliers Union President Osman Ayik adds that along with the expected boom in real estate sales, the Turkish construction sector will by necessity make gains, helping to lower unemployment.
And Reuters added on February 3 that “…Turkish real estate companies expect the building and property sector to grow by more than 10 percent this year, while up to four property firms will list on the stock market.”

The race to get as much as they can before the territorial quota is reached will no doubt spur coastal real estate agents to act fast. But the greater part of inland Anatolia and Thrace is likely to remain untouched, save by those more intrepid property hunters who don’t mind trading Western-style amenities and sandy beaches for more affordable property in distinctly Turkish areas- many of which are immensely interesting and beautiful in their own right. There is also Turkey’s long Black Sea coast in the north, which is likely to attract interest once the Aegean and Mediterranean markets become oversaturated. Istanbul, Turkey’s cultural capital, may also become popular with those expected by the prospect of living in a historic and dynamic city.

A Danger of Overdevelopment?

However, could real estate development, currently buttressed by demand and commanding prices that would have been unimaginable 15 or 20 years ago, actually harm itself in the long run? It seems reasonable to fear that hideously bland properties, advertised enthusiastically on the internet by mostly British brokers, could turn Turkey’s most beautiful landscapes into antiseptic geriatric parks for Europe’s pensioners- thus harming the beauty and desirability of the Turkish coast. This is something that could, in the long-term, negatively affect value. The Turkish government’s attempts to keep control of the situation through zoning restrictions have long come up against opposition from the real estate lobby, for obvious reasons.

With the adoption of the new law, disclosures by companies like Braemore-Gemini – that their Bodrum project “…is only the start [of] plans for the Turkish real estate market” – strike fear in the hearts of environmentalists and others concerned that whatever natural beauty and singularity wasn’t killed during the great resort proliferation of the 1980’s has not long to live now that foreigners have gotten the all-clear to buy.

Indeed, as the press release noted, “…Bodrum is rapidly becoming known as the Monte Carlo of the Aegean because it is so chic and sophisticated - and its appeal has begun attracting European stars and celebrities in their droves. Many famous TV, film and sporting faces from across Europe are known to have second homes in the Bodrum region and this is increasing the international popularity of the entire Bodrum Peninsula region of Turkey.”

Then there is the question of North Cyprus, which also features its share of fine beaches. Although Turkish and foreign companies are moving aggressively to profit from properties in the north, the divided island’s legal limbo, as well as the possibility that Greek Cypriots might someday make claims on properties taken over by the Turks following the 1974 invasion, mean that caution may be in order.

Other Worries: Bird Flu and Bombings

Concerns have also been raised over whether the Turkish property market, despite the liberating new law, might be harmed by fears of bird flu. Exclusive International’s James Wittering, while admitting that his company has “a vested interest” in promoting Turkish property investment tries to put the problem in perspective by arguing that “…with every potential (and actual) epidemic in history, bird flu will eventually lose its power, certainly by the time any property you could buy today has been built.”

A more pervasive problem, however, is terrorism. When Greek tourism rebounded in 2005 following an Olympic summer that was disastrous for many hoteliers, Greeks were quick to point to the July bombings in Kusadasi and Istanbul as proof that their country was a safer destination than its allegedly volatile, Muslim-inhabited neighbor to the east.

Terrorism in Turkey promises to be a less dramatic problem than freak outbursts of infectious disease, yet a more pervasive and longer-lasting one. It is also more complex, given the double existence of ethnic separatists, the Kurds, and religion-minded Islamic terrorists. The former hope to cripple the Turkish state economically to expedite the creation of one of their own, while the latter are irked by Turkey’s liberal society and the growing number of non-Muslim tourists. And there are points of convergence for both: renewed violence from Kurdish separatists has been fed directly by the universally unpopular US actions in Iraq, overwhelmingly opposed by Muslim Turks on grounds of religion.

The Kurds raise fears because unlike other ethnic secessionists elsewhere, they have never shown qualms about taking the fight from the contested lands in the east to the cities and resorts of western Turkey. The potentially al Qaeda-linked terrorists also cause concern over their specific targeting of Western interests, such as the British consulate and HSBC bank in Istanbul in November 2003.

The actions of both have the potential to damage the image – and tangible assets – of the property market in Turkey far more than bird flu.

More Long-term Factors: Social Interaction and the Role of Religion

In the end, however, social issues determined by religion and politics may also play a strong, if subtle role in determining the future for Western permanent vacationers in Turkey. While Turks are glad to profit from catering to foreign tourists, theirs is a relatively conservative society, in which values such as modesty and decorum still hold. For Turks, drunken, vomiting Briton football hooligans and peeling, red-faced Swedes dancing on barstools are more to be tolerated than appreciated. Disrespectful foreigners occasionally wind up in trouble, even violently, for their indiscretions.

Further, Turkish national pride has been wounded by the EU’s perceived disdain for the country. Many Turks believe the European club intends to keep them at arm’s length for as long as possible, if not exclude them forever. That said, why should the Turks cheerily cater to the same people who want to deal with them only when they’re being served a drink or having their beds made?

How the Turkish government will handle the sensitive issues of religion and culture has been scrutinized closely by the EU, especially by states which are openly hostile to the prospect of Turkey’s accession. But the government has repeatedly made propositions which seem, for Europeans at least, to be alarmingly fluid and confusing.
Thus for every move it makes to be more “European,” such as abolishing the death penalty, and giving the Kurds more rights, the Turkish government seems to be on the verge of taking a step backward- such as with the ultimately unsuccessful plans to illegalize adultery in 2004 and, in late 2005, to ban alcohol in city centers and resorts. For all the EU’s talk about abstract principles and governance, the fact is that nothing could drive European tourists away faster than outlawing promiscuity and inebriation.

The Turks, of course, recognized the ramifications for economics and the separation of church and state and quashed both proposals- at least for now. But the fear that at sometime in the future such restrictive ideas could emerge once again remains.

In sum, the government’s flirtations with Islam in proposing legislation are influenced by a complex phenomenon of tugging and counter-tugging from the Islamic interests, on the one hand, and the army, the liberal urban populations, the EU and market-driven business and social interests on the other. Yet considering what it’s up against, the power of the former has been continuously underestimated. Religious parties have stubbornly and continuously created obstacles for a very well established and wealthy aggregation of the political and economic interests both foreign and domestic.

It seems the role of Islam in Turkish society will only increase with the perception that Westerners seek to dishonor Muslim values, as with the recent Danish cartoons imbroglio (the Turkish government, alarming some Europeans, even aligned itself with the ‘real’ Islamic states last fall by lodging an official protest over the cartoons). Even more so, the role of Islam and sympathy to those the West deems terrorists will rise should the Bush Administration attack Iran or other Muslim-populated states. Property-owning Westerners could yet find themselves unwelcome in their dream homes.

This is not to say that the future for foreign property owners is dire. Western-oriented business interests such as real estate are extremely powerful in Turkey, and the more they consolidate their position by attracting global partners and clients, the more political and media influence – key factors for shaping public acceptance – they can purchase

…………………………

Note: Very detailed information and analysis pertaining to the Turkish political and economic situation is available from the Oxford Business Group’s comprehensive publication, Emerging Turkey.

Sunday, January 29, 2006

Well Isn't This What You Asked For?

(This article is from the Antiwar.com blog)


Everyone is jumping over the fact that the US has brought Hamas to power through its love of exporting democracy- just as it's democracy-building brought Communist economics to Ukraine, and has made Iraq a state ruled by Islamic law.

Three words you'll never hear come out of the president's mouth: "whoops, my bad!"

The question is, why this strategic disaster?

There seem to be two reasons. One, either the US was suckered into it by the innumerable yes-men it has empowered in all the think-tanks, NGOs and other institutions, whose job depends on their ability to tell their minders what they want to hear. Or two, they planned it all along, aware that more "democracy" in the Middle East would result in mass upheaval, the empowerment of Islamic parties, and more fuel for the fire of jihad- thus handily ensuring that the war on terror will go on for years, as Dick Cheney eagerly anticipated.

If the former, it seems that it involved a failure to select policies that matched the place of implementation. The most important is that the democratic "revolutions" in Serbia, Macedonia, Ukraine and Georgia are not, as the administration imagined, stellar examples of what will be in the Middle East. The stark difference of religion, culture and society between these predominantly Christian countries and those of the Middle East negate them as exemplars for "reform" in the latter region. Yet the misconception was based from the start on the perception that "democratic elections" naturally meant that the citizens would vote for America's favorite candidate.

Yet, as the AP noted, "the success of religious-based candidates or parties [in the Middle East], many of whom are hostile to Mr. Bush and opposed to American ideas, is sobering."

Of course it is not. For something to be "sobering" implies that it was to some degree unexpected. Of course, if you're blind drunk and swerving hazardously on the road to democracy, as this administration is doing, it's natural to expect a crash.

Perhaps the reality is a combination of the two. The ideologues in the administration, caught up in their own pretensions to universal values, blended harmoniously with the realists, who understood that democracy could bring them a lot of war- and the spoils that come with it. They're not done by a long shot. And neither is "democracy."

The Bully Complex

(This article is from the Antiwar.com blog)


Canadian war reporter Scott Taylor was recently interviewed by the Canadian-Macedonian News newspaper. He kindly mentions myself, but that is not the primary reason I suggest the article. More interesting is the following insight into why the Americans tend to support who they do.

When asked why the Americans fell for the fawning accolades and desperate pleas of the Albanians (as well as the Kurds), Scott notes:

"...The American mentality is they want to be loved. They’re like a great big schoolyard bully who really just wants a friend and they don’t understand that the Albanians don’t really like them. They’re just using them and the Kurds in northern Iraq are just using the Americans. It’s the inherent weakness of this great big giant, blind, stupid bully. He wants to be liked so if somebody says we like you they believe him because they want to be liked. The Macedonians aren’t going to play that game. The Serbs are definitely not going to play that game."

Of course, at work are also all the numerous geostrategic and economic interests, some of which Scott mentions, but this insight into America's collective psychology has a devastating ring of truth to it, for me anyway.

Today we live in an imperial moment like any other. And when it becomes necessary to grovel at the feet of empire to curry favor, those who have neither self-respect nor an interest in self-reliance always win. Sometimes it's better to lose.

Saturday, January 28, 2006

Militarizing USAID

At least they won't have to pretend anymore that the military and the "humanitarian good deeds" are somehow distinct.

Friday, January 27, 2006

Macedonian Opposition Unites, at Least for Election Dates

(This article is from the Balkanalysis.com archive)


The fractious and ever burgeoning Macedonian opposition has announced its collective desire for the upcoming parliamentary elections to be held not in summer, as significant members of the ruling coalition would like, but in either spring or fall, reported A1 Television on Friday.

Speaking for over 20 opposition parties, VMRO-DPMNE chief Nikola Gruevski presented the resolution, saying that it would be "a catastrophe" if the government tried "to falsify the elections" by holding them in early July- though exactly how this timing would mean a falsification was not spelled out.Other opposition party leaders Dosta Dimovska, Liljana Popovska and Marjan Gjorcev also signed the resolution, according to A1. When asked whether this show of unity augured a possible coalition run with VMRO-DPMNE, Popovska stated merely that "we are open for all agreements for future cooperation."

However, there were some prominent omissions from the list of opposition parties signed on to Gruevski's declaration. Most notable perhaps was the VMRO-Narodna breakaway party of former mentor and prime minister, Ljubco Georgievski, which was not invited, reported A1. Tito Petkovski, who similarly broke away from the ruling SDSM, was invited but did not show up. And the Democratic Alternative of Vasil Tupurkovski would not sign the declaration because of Gruevski's selection of parties.

As for the Albanian opposition, the DPA of Arben Xhaferi stated in a letter their agreement with the manifesto but did not attend due to their ongoing boycott of Parliament, while the smaller PDP is also said to be in approval.

The ruling coalition, goaded by Ali Ahemti's ALbanian DUI party, has been considering holding elections in early July- just in time for Albanian migrant workers to come back from their Western European residences for annual vacation/mass wedding leave. These are the voters who, fired up by their spirit of homecoming cheer and not weighed down by actually having to live with the results of their ballots, can be mobilized strongly by the party.

Of course, summer is also the time when many people like to go on vacation elsewhere- either to Lake Ohrid or out of the country altogether, to Greece, Turkey, Bulgaria, Montenegro or further afield. It is extremely unlikely, scoffed one Skopje local yesterday, that any jaundiced Macedonian voter would sacrifice his hard-won vacation just to vote for "a party which is bad over another that might be worse."

Macedonia's Prime Minister and SDSM boss, Vlado Buckovski, has argued that no matter what happens with the election timetable, new election laws and laws on judicial reform should be implemented first.

According to MIA, Gruevski's declaration was also signed by leaders of "the Green Party, European Party of Macedonia, Bosniak Democratic Party, Social-Democratic Party, Demo-Christian Party, Democratic Party for Orthodox Unity of Serbs and Macedonians, Justice Party, Democratic-Republican Union of Macedonia, Democratic Union, Democratic Reconstruction of Macedonia, Liberal Party, Agricultural People's Party of Macedonia, Party of Movement of Turks, League for Democracy, TMRO, Party of Vlachs, National Movement of Macedonia, Party for Democratic Forces of Roma in Macedonia, Party for Roma Integration in Macedonia, Party for Democratic Action, Macedonian People's Party, and a representative of the Democratic Union of Serbs."

Tuesday, January 24, 2006

The Rich List 2005: Top Ten Wealthiest Dynasties in Greece and Turkey

(This article is from the Balkanalysis.com archive)


By Ioannis Michaletos

Greece and Turkey are the two wealthiest countries in southeastern Europe. Their family fortunes are concentrated in select areas that go back for generations. In these archetypal Mediterranean nations, familial dynasties rather than individual businessmen thus ensure the transfer of power, prestige and wealth.

In 2005, the wealthiest Greeks and Turks continued to branch out into new areas of the economy and have attained considerable political clout. Moreover, each year they give large sums for charity and humanitarian and educational organizations the world over.

This article introduces the ten wealthiest Greek and Turkish dynasties (five a side), and gives a short description of their assets, history and achievements.However, readers should note that other tycoons may have been omitted due to limited space or other factors; for example, businessmen with dual nationalities, or those who spend most or all of their time abroad, or whose financial assets may be very considerable but at the same time too difficult to calculate (such as the Greek ship owners)- all these have been excluded from the present study.

Top Five Turkish Dynasties

1.) The Sabanci Family

The Sabanci family conglomerate is a formidable force in the Turkish market. They direct Sabanci Holding, considered to rank 85th among the world’s largest family-owned businesses. The patriarch of the family, Sakip Sabanci, died in April 2004.

Sabanci Holding encompasses a diverse range of economic activities. It has interests in tourism, textiles, chemicals, banking, the automotive industry and much more. Multinationals such as Du Pont, Toyota, IBM and the Altria group have formed partnerships with Sabanci-controlled industries and have formed a large basis of today’s Turkey’s industrial production.

The family patriarch was born in 1933 in Kayseri, into a rather poor family and maintained his folksy charm throughout; according to the Guardian, he “rejoiced in being known as ‘Sakip Aga’ - which translates roughly as Squire Sakip, or the big man of the village. To reinforce the point, he often spoke with a deliberate provincial drawl, which was his way of showing the country that, despite his wealth and influence, he had not lost contact with his origins.”

Mr. Sabanci managed throughout his life to create an economic empire and at the same time to help form a new breed of Turkish industrialists, who aspire to become not merely workers but leading shapers of new technology and industry in Europe. He was also a major donor for philanthropic institutions and the creator of the Sabanci University in Istanbul, one of the top academic institutions in the region. Furthermore, his Istanbul museum on the Bosporus, dedicated to fine arts and calligraphy, has gained an international reputation.

In the societal and political sphere, Sabanci and his family are considered very influential. It must be noted that the late Turkish prime minister, Turgut Özal was a friend and a coordinator of his family’s interests, having predicted the dynamics of free-market economy and how productivity-driven entrepreneurs could lift the Turkish economy.
Facts: Sabanci Holding comprises 64 companies, 9 joint ventures and numerous real estate investments. Total revenues for 2005 are estimated at around 8.7 billion USD. They employee around 35,000 people.

Fortune: Sabanci’s family fortune is roughly estimated in 3,5 billion USD.

2.) The Koç Clan

The reigning king of Turkish businesses is Rahmi Koç. One of the most successful businessmen of his generation, Mr. Koç commands a lot of respect in the international arena for his abilities and vision where financial issues are concerned. He directs the Koç conglomerate, which is very diversified and follows a complex business structure. He too has acquired a reputation for charity and thousands of people depend on his support for various needs.

Koç’s business interests lie in the food and automotive industry, retail and supermarkets, finance, construction, defense and other. Moreover, he was for a period of time during the 1990’s the driving force behind the expansion of Turkish international economic interests in the Balkans and Eastern Mediterranean area and has promoted economic cooperation with Greek, Israeli, American and Arab investors. He is also considered a staunch supporter of Turkey’s further consolidation within the EU structures, as well as an optimist about Istanbul’s role as a key city in the Balkans. Koç also started a museum which is billed as “the first major museum in Turkey dedicated to the history of Transport, Industry and Communications.”

Facts: The Koç conglomerate has 106 companies and an undisclosed number of business partnerships, virtually all over the world. Around 65,000 employees work in these firms

Fortune: The estimated family fortune is around 3.2 billion USD.

3.) The Sahenk Family

Slightly lower profile but also fabulously wealthy is the Sahenk family. Ferit Sahenk is the chairman of Dogus Holding, which is active in a variety of fields such as construction, finance, tourism, media and other sectors.
The family also owns the well known and successful Garanti Bank, in which the GE Capital Corporation bought a 25 percent stake for 1.7 billion USD last year. This particular deal was rated as an important step towards greater liberalization in the Turkish banking sector, which had been severely affected by the 2001 economic crisis, and the Sahenk family received acclaim for this achievement. Having such a large amount of readily available capital naturally means that they would most surely capture the headlines with investments, either abroad or domestic.

Compared with other Turkish tycoons, the Sahenk family is generally considered to keep a low profile, seeking little media exposure. Nevertheless, considering the amount of capital they have raised, it is more than certain that they will continue to play a very active role in the Turkish economy in the coming years.

Facts: The net worth of the Sahenk conglomerate is around 2.5 billion USD, with a turnover for 2005 of 6 billion USD. They employ about 18,000 people.

Fortune: Estimated at around 3.5 billion USD.

4.) Turgay Ciner and Family

A very shrewd businessperson with an unlimited capacity for achieving deals, mergers and opportunities, Turgay Ciner prides himself on being a self-made entrepreneur and doesn’t hide his ambition of taking on a greater role as far as business issues are concerned. His flagship company is the Park Group, which has invested capital in sectors like textiles, energy, media and mining. A lot of the production in the latter is being exported to Middle Eastern states, with the intention of expanding into the Chinese market.

Facts: Ciner employs around 14,000 people. Capital investments and revenues have not been found, but are considered to be almost as high as the previous three holdings.

Fortune: Estimated around 1.1 billion USD.

5.) Mehmet Karamehmet and Family

The Karamehmet family owns Turkcell, a mobile phone operator which is the largest in Turkey and amongst the top ten in Europe in terms of subscriber numbers. It is also listed on the NYSE. They also own the Superonline web portal, the largest in Turkey, which also serves as an e-pass for all services controlled by the Karamehmet family. Where philanthropic matters are concerned, the family gives a lot in terms of scholarships as well as in donations towards football clubs and sports in general.

Facts: Turkcell has 2,300 employees, and 27 million subscribers, with a lot of growth potential in the Central Asia market.

Fortune: Around 3.5 billion USD.

Top Five Greek Dynasties

1.) The Latsis Family

The first name on the Greek list is that of Spiros Latsis, heir of the legendary self-made tycoon John Latsis. He is a very discreet businessman, who has carefully and methodically constructed a financial empire, whilst diversifying assets from shipping – the basis of his father’s wealth – into a variety of activities.

For example, a leading Greek bank, Eurobank, was created by Latsis in 1990; its ongoing success story includes success at home as well as expansion into the Balkans and planned expansion in Poland; the bank is shooting for 100 new branches throughout the northeastern European country by 2008.

Another notable Latsis investment is the Lamda Development Group, associated with the real estate sector, which has made notable achievements in Greece and Romania. Spiros Latsis also became a large shareholder in Hellenic Petroleum when his oil refinery was merged with it.

Like the other dynasties on the list, the Latsis family is also a great benefactor, donating educational scholarships for students and large sums each year for charities. Latsis’ key characteristic is his financial savvy and a great intellectual capacity for understanding the deep underlying challenges that accompany business expansion.
Facts: Eurobank employees number around 13,500; the bank has a market capitalization of 8 billion USD in the Athens Stock Exchange.

Fortune: The Latsis family fortune is estimated at around 6 billion USD.

2.) The Vardinoyannis Family

A very well known name in Greek business circles is that of the Vardinoyannis family. Unlike the other more or less patriarchal dynasties, the Vardinoyannis clan operates as a tight-knit group of relatives controlling numerous successful companies in a variety of sectors. The most important is the Avin International group, active in the area of oil transport, possessing a fleet of tankers and offices in locations across the globe.

The family also owns Motor Oil, an oil refinery in the Athens area which is the second largest in the Balkans and has an international clientele for its finished products. Other companies include the Star TV station and Village Cinemas.
The Vardinoyannis family is very well known for its donations to charities, and has very close relations with other rich and important families in the USA and the Arabic world. Its business philosophy is characterized by a tendency to tread cautiously and to promote the interests of the companies, without bowing to ephemeral passing trends and opportunistic temptations.

Facts: Motor oil has a market capitalization of around 3 billion USD. The total number of employees in all
Vardinoyannis-controlled companies is difficult to calculate precisely, but they probably are around 15,000.

Fortune: Around 2 billion USD.

3.) Socrates Kokkalis and Family

The flamboyant Socrates Kokkalis heads up one of the richest and most important business empires in the current Greek business scene. A self-made, dynamic entrepreneur involved in electronics and new technology, Kokkalis has built from scratch a large conglomerate well known for the high technology of its products.

First among them is the Intracom Group, an electronics company that built Kokkalis’ image, for better and for worse, which has achieved over the years numerous contracts in multiple countries. The Intralot entity is a group specialized in designing, producing and implementing systems for lotto and other games of chance all over the world, from Ecuador to Russia to Thailand. It is considered the third-largest group of its kind and pundits predict it will reach the top by the end of the decade.

However, Socrates Kokkalis has also been dogged by scandals and lawsuits, which he vociferously argues are nothing more than politically-motivated smear campaigns by his business campaigners, involving alleged crimes ranging from sports-fixing and lottery fraud to ties with drug smugglers. Kokkalis’ main related characteristic is his business acumen, combined with a driving will to succeed.

Like the others on the list, Kokkalis has attempted to increase his influence and undertake philanthropic obligations through giving scholarships to Balkan students at his Kokkalis Foundation, located at Harvard University in the US.
Facts: Intracom has around a 750 million USD annual turnover, and 50 million USD profit. It employees around 8,000 people. Intrasoft has 1,500 employees and revenues of 400 million USD.

Fortune: Around 1.5 billion USD.

4.) Nikolaos Stasinopoulos and Family

Fourth on the list of the Greek rich and powerful is Nikolaos Stasinopoulos. He is a very discreet and productive captain of industry, and one who belongs literally to the group of businessmen that developed the post-WWII Greek industrial sector.

The family’s main company is Viohalko Holding, which has interests ranging in all areas of metallurgy. Other firms include ELVAL, which produces aluminum products, ETEM, Halkor, Sidenor and Fitco. All these companies are involved in the production of copper, steel and plastic, and have made real inroads on international markets. In fact, 6 percent of Greece’s total exports come from the Stasinopoulos string of companies. Mr. Stasinopoulos has held the title of greatest Greek exporter for quite some years. His main business characteristics are caution and discretion; he eschews public display of his wealth and strives for minimal media exposure.

Facts: Some 80 companies are owned partially or in full by Stasinopoulos. Viohalco alone employs around 8,000
people. The sum of exports made by his group in 2005 was around 1.5 billion USD.

Fortune: The Stasinopoulos fortune stands at around 1.2 billion USD; however, its sheer number and diversity of interests makes it difficult to estimate.

5.) The Mytilineos Family

The final Greek entry on the list is the venerable Mytilineos family, which has dealt in metal products since the late 19th century. The family owns the Mytilineos Holding consortium, which has a strong presence in the Greek and Balkan area in the aforementioned products.

They also have large stakes in Aluminium of Greece, the largest aluminum producer in the country, and the METKA Group, which is involved in the production of material used in electrical plants and in projects in the defense sector. Moreover, they are the main stakeholders in ELVO, which manufactures light-weight vehicles, mainly for the armed forces. As a family, the Mytilinios clan has strong ambition to get more involved in the emerging Balkan markets, especially in Romania.

Facts: Around 5000 employees in all companies, and Mytilineos Holding alone projects revenues of 1.3 billion USD for 2006.

Fortune: Roughly, around 1 billion USD.

Links for further reading and research:

Additional information and sources for this article can be found on the websites of the Athens Stock Exchange, the Istanbul Stock Exchange, Fortune, Business Week, and Forbes.